Pelas minhas contas a chance de um world class player ganhar 3 braceletes é de 306 pra 1, mais perto de 200 pra 1 do que muitos imaginam
Contas que fiz se alguém tiver curioso (é meio grande e está em inglês porque fiz pro twoplustwo)
"These were the 30 smallest fields from WSOP 2015 422 308 109 143 128 474 319 157 219 91 77 111 84 327 117 135 175 108 204 454 387 357 380 462 639 660 319 493 480 388 An average player has 1/X to win the tournament, if you are a world class player and have twice the odds of average player your odds is 2/X For a 300 field tour: winning = 2/300, not winning = 298/300 Odds of at least 3 bracelets is 100% minus (odds of exactly zero bracelets + odds of exactly 1 bracelet + odds of exactly 2 bracelets) ZERO BRACELETS = 0.73198959825 (~73%) EXACTLY ONE BRACELET = 0.23008063092 (~23%) EXACTLY 2 BRACELETS = 0.03466601706 (~3,4%) WINNING AT LEAST 3 BRACELETS = 1-0.73198959825-0.23008063092-0.03466601706 = 0.00326375377 (~0,32%) 0.00326375377 = 306 TO 1
DETAILS: ZERO BRACELETS = (420/422)*(306/308)*(107/109)*(141/143)*(126/128)*(472/474)*(317/319)*(155/157)*(217/219)*(89/91)*(75/77)*(109/111)*(82/84)*(325/327)*(115/117)*(133/135)*(173/175)*(106/108)*(202/204)*(452/454)*(385/387)*(355/357)*(378/380)*(460/462)*(637/639)*(658/660)*(317/319)*(491/493)*(478/480)*(386/388) = 0.73198959825 EXACTLY ONE BRACELET = SUM OF ALL 30 POSSIBILITES OF WINNING 1 TOURNAMENT AND NOT WINNING OTHER 29 = SUM OF: 0,003485665 0,004784246 0,013682049 0,010382831 0,011618883 0,003101651 0,004618231 0,009445027 0,006746448 0,016449204 0,019519723 0,013431002 0,017853405 0,004504551 0,012730254 0,011007362 0,008462307 0,013811124 0,007247422 0,003238892 0,003802543 0,004123885 0,003872961 0,003182563 0,00229824 0,002224892 0,004618231 0,002981628 0,003062718 0,003792692
EXACTLY 2 BRACELETS = SUM OF ALL 435 POSSIBILITES OF WINNING 2 EVENTS AND NOT WINNING OTHER 28= 435*(((0.30968393238/30)^2)*((29.6903160676/30)^28))
WHERE 0.30968393238 IS (2/422)+(2/308)+(2/109)+(2/143)+(2/128)+(2/474)+(2/319)+(2/157)+(2/219)+(2/91)+(2/77)+(2/111)+(2/84)+(2/327)+(2/117)+(2/135)+(2/175)+(2/108)+(2/204)+(2/454)+(2/387)+(2/357)+(2/380)+(2/462)+(2/639)+(2/660)+(2/319)+(2/493)+(2/480)+(2/388)
AND 29.6903160676 IS (420/422)+(306/308)+(107/109)+(141/143)+(126/128)+(472/474)+(317/319)+(155/157)+(217/219)+(89/91)+(75/77)+(109/111)+(82/84)+(325/327)+(115/117)+(133/135)+(173/175)+(106/108)+(202/204)+(452/454)+(385/387)+(355/357)+(378/380)+(460/462)+(637/639)+(658/660)+(317/319)+(491/493)+(478/480)+(386/388)
esse cara ai eh o Colisea. Nego eh sick em mixed games e ano passado ganhou 4 torneios no EPT malta inclusive um 25k.
Mixed game sao os menores fields no WSOP. Obvio q o nego tem uma chance mto baixa mas pra mim 10k nao muda nada pra Vanessa mas 2MM mto provavel quebre ela.
Pra mim isso eh o tipico da bet retardada pra mostrar q tem $$
Soh quero ver a cara da Vanessa caso o cara ganhe 2 braceletes e ft outra mesa
Pelas minhas contas a chance de um world class player ganhar 3 braceletes é de 306 pra 1, mais perto de 200 pra 1 do que muitos imaginam
Contas que fiz se alguém tiver curioso (é meio grande e está em inglês porque fiz pro twoplustwo)
"These were the 30 smallest fields from WSOP 2015 422 308 109 143 128 474 319 157 219 91 77 111 84 327 117 135 175 108 204 454 387 357 380 462 639 660 319 493 480 388 An average player has 1/X to win the tournament, if you are a world class player and have twice the odds of average player your odds is 2/X For a 300 field tour: winning = 2/300, not winning = 298/300 Odds of at least 3 bracelets is 100% minus (odds of exactly zero bracelets + odds of exactly 1 bracelet + odds of exactly 2 bracelets) ZERO BRACELETS = 0.73198959825 (~73%) EXACTLY ONE BRACELET = 0.23008063092 (~23%) EXACTLY 2 BRACELETS = 0.03466601706 (~3,4%) WINNING AT LEAST 3 BRACELETS = 1-0.73198959825-0.23008063092-0.03466601706 = 0.00326375377 (~0,32%) 0.00326375377 = 306 TO 1
DETAILS: ZERO BRACELETS = (420/422)*(306/308)*(107/109)*(141/143)*(126/128)*(472/474)*(317/319)*(155/157)*(217/219)*(89/91)*(75/77)*(109/111)*(82/84)*(325/327)*(115/117)*(133/135)*(173/175)*(106/108)*(202/204)*(452/454)*(385/387)*(355/357)*(378/380)*(460/462)*(637/639)*(658/660)*(317/319)*(491/493)*(478/480)*(386/388) = 0.73198959825 EXACTLY ONE BRACELET = SUM OF ALL 30 POSSIBILITES OF WINNING 1 TOURNAMENT AND NOT WINNING OTHER 29 = SUM OF: 0,003485665 0,004784246 0,013682049 0,010382831 0,011618883 0,003101651 0,004618231 0,009445027 0,006746448 0,016449204 0,019519723 0,013431002 0,017853405 0,004504551 0,012730254 0,011007362 0,008462307 0,013811124 0,007247422 0,003238892 0,003802543 0,004123885 0,003872961 0,003182563 0,00229824 0,002224892 0,004618231 0,002981628 0,003062718 0,003792692
EXACTLY 2 BRACELETS = SUM OF ALL 435 POSSIBILITES OF WINNING 2 EVENTS AND NOT WINNING OTHER 28= 435*(((0.30968393238/30)^2)*((29.6903160676/30)^28))
WHERE 0.30968393238 IS (2/422)+(2/308)+(2/109)+(2/143)+(2/128)+(2/474)+(2/319)+(2/157)+(2/219)+(2/91)+(2/77)+(2/111)+(2/84)+(2/327)+(2/117)+(2/135)+(2/175)+(2/108)+(2/204)+(2/454)+(2/387)+(2/357)+(2/380)+(2/462)+(2/639)+(2/660)+(2/319)+(2/493)+(2/480)+(2/388)
AND 29.6903160676 IS (420/422)+(306/308)+(107/109)+(141/143)+(126/128)+(472/474)+(317/319)+(155/157)+(217/219)+(89/91)+(75/77)+(109/111)+(82/84)+(325/327)+(115/117)+(133/135)+(173/175)+(106/108)+(202/204)+(452/454)+(385/387)+(355/357)+(378/380)+(460/462)+(637/639)+(658/660)+(317/319)+(491/493)+(478/480)+(386/388)
"
vc tem alguma formação de matemática, ou algo assim?
Eu to torcendo pra que ela se ferre, que ele binke dois braceletes no começo e ela não consiga vender action a odds suficiente pra se defender e tome o ferro da vida
Tem Triple Draw 10k logo no começo geralmente, ele é especialista em TD (tem WCOOP ou SCOOP acho)
Pelas minhas contas a chance de um world class player ganhar 3 braceletes é de 306 pra 1, mais perto de 200 pra 1 do que muitos imaginam
Contas que fiz se alguém tiver curioso (é meio grande e está em inglês porque fiz pro twoplustwo)
"These were the 30 smallest fields from WSOP 2015 422 308 109 143 128 474 319 157 219 91 77 111 84 327 117 135 175 108 204 454 387 357 380 462 639 660 319 493 480 388 An average player has 1/X to win the tournament, if you are a world class player and have twice the odds of average player your odds is 2/X For a 300 field tour: winning = 2/300, not winning = 298/300 Odds of at least 3 bracelets is 100% minus (odds of exactly zero bracelets + odds of exactly 1 bracelet + odds of exactly 2 bracelets) ZERO BRACELETS = 0.73198959825 (~73%) EXACTLY ONE BRACELET = 0.23008063092 (~23%) EXACTLY 2 BRACELETS = 0.03466601706 (~3,4%) WINNING AT LEAST 3 BRACELETS = 1-0.73198959825-0.23008063092-0.03466601706 = 0.00326375377 (~0,32%) 0.00326375377 = 306 TO 1
DETAILS: ZERO BRACELETS = (420/422)*(306/308)*(107/109)*(141/143)*(126/128)*(472/474)*(317/319)*(155/157)*(217/219)*(89/91)*(75/77)*(109/111)*(82/84)*(325/327)*(115/117)*(133/135)*(173/175)*(106/108)*(202/204)*(452/454)*(385/387)*(355/357)*(378/380)*(460/462)*(637/639)*(658/660)*(317/319)*(491/493)*(478/480)*(386/388) = 0.73198959825 EXACTLY ONE BRACELET = SUM OF ALL 30 POSSIBILITES OF WINNING 1 TOURNAMENT AND NOT WINNING OTHER 29 = SUM OF: 0,003485665 0,004784246 0,013682049 0,010382831 0,011618883 0,003101651 0,004618231 0,009445027 0,006746448 0,016449204 0,019519723 0,013431002 0,017853405 0,004504551 0,012730254 0,011007362 0,008462307 0,013811124 0,007247422 0,003238892 0,003802543 0,004123885 0,003872961 0,003182563 0,00229824 0,002224892 0,004618231 0,002981628 0,003062718 0,003792692
EXACTLY 2 BRACELETS = SUM OF ALL 435 POSSIBILITES OF WINNING 2 EVENTS AND NOT WINNING OTHER 28= 435*(((0.30968393238/30)^2)*((29.6903160676/30)^28))
WHERE 0.30968393238 IS (2/422)+(2/308)+(2/109)+(2/143)+(2/128)+(2/474)+(2/319)+(2/157)+(2/219)+(2/91)+(2/77)+(2/111)+(2/84)+(2/327)+(2/117)+(2/135)+(2/175)+(2/108)+(2/204)+(2/454)+(2/387)+(2/357)+(2/380)+(2/462)+(2/639)+(2/660)+(2/319)+(2/493)+(2/480)+(2/388)
AND 29.6903160676 IS (420/422)+(306/308)+(107/109)+(141/143)+(126/128)+(472/474)+(317/319)+(155/157)+(217/219)+(89/91)+(75/77)+(109/111)+(82/84)+(325/327)+(115/117)+(133/135)+(173/175)+(106/108)+(202/204)+(452/454)+(385/387)+(355/357)+(378/380)+(460/462)+(637/639)+(658/660)+(317/319)+(491/493)+(478/480)+(386/388)
"
vc tem alguma formação de matemática, ou algo assim?
Eu sou Engenheiro então conta como formação matemática apesar de que nada disso aí é matemática muito avançada não
esse cara ai eh o Colisea. Nego eh sick em mixed games e ano passado ganhou 4 torneios no EPT malta inclusive um 25k.
Mixed game sao os menores fields no WSOP. Obvio q o nego tem uma chance mto baixa mas pra mim 10k nao muda nada pra Vanessa mas 2MM mto provavel quebre ela.
Pra mim isso eh o tipico da bet retardada pra mostrar q tem $$
Soh quero ver a cara da Vanessa caso o cara ganhe 2 braceletes e ft outra mesa
Pensei que tava todo mundo noiado só pensando em odds long run e os caramba.
penso exatamente igual, bet so pra aparecer mesmo.
esse cara ai eh o Colisea. Nego eh sick em mixed games e ano passado ganhou 4 torneios no EPT malta inclusive um 25k.
Mixed game sao os menores fields no WSOP. Obvio q o nego tem uma chance mto baixa mas pra mim 10k nao muda nada pra Vanessa mas 2MM mto provavel quebre ela.
Pra mim isso eh o tipico da bet retardada pra mostrar q tem $$
Soh quero ver a cara da Vanessa caso o cara ganhe 2 braceletes e ft outra mesa
Pensei que tava todo mundo noiado só pensando em odds long run e os caramba.
penso exatamente igual, bet so pra aparecer mesmo.
E é mesmo, no próprio vídeo ela fala que apostar 2 milhões é "sexy"
De fato ela pode se defender bem dependendo do que aconteça, pode até freerollar quantias altas
Se faltarem somente 3 eventos ela pode betar 10k que ele vai ganhar os 3, alguém vai dar 500 pra 1 e ela freerolla 3 milhões de dólares
Mas se ele ganhar 2 nos primeiros 10 eventos gg pra ela, é ferro dos grandes
48Likes
Responder com Citação
Postado originalmente por Pedro Marte
